法国在华直接投资对双边贸易的影响效应分析

The Analysis of Dynamic Effects of French Direct Investment in China on Bilateral Trade

文章应用协整方程、脉冲响应函数等动态计量经济研究方法,实证分析了法国对华直接投资与中法贸易之间的动态关系及其互动影响。研究结果表明:从总体来看,法国投资和中法贸易有着互补的促进关系,先后出现进口诱发效应、出口诱发效应和返销效应;从协整方程和脉冲响应函数来看,法国在华投资和我国出口法国贸易之间的正向影响效应尤其明显,表明我国对外资企业实行的"出口导向"政策起到了预想的作用;最后,由VAR模型下的脉冲响应和方差分解分析来看,法国对华直接投资相对于中法贸易,存在明显的滞后现象,但最终影响效应凸显,并维持在较高的正区间。表明两国的投资和贸易虽在波折中前行,但随着互信的增加,其正向作用最终显现。未来两国有着较强的互补性,其经贸合作前景广阔。

In this paper, cointegration analysis, Granger causality test and impulse response function and other dynamic econometric are used to analyze the French direct investment in China and the Sino-French trade relations and the interaction between the effects of dynamic. The results show that： French direct in- vestment in China and China＇s export trade in France exist a long-term equilibrium relationship and the one-way causality. However, this mutual influence, there is obvious hysteresis. French direct investment in China on China＇ s exports to France, in the beginning, will have a negative influence, then begin to translate into positive effects and will maintain at a higher positive interval.