中国地方政府支出的瓦格纳检验

The Test of Wagner’s Law for China's Local Government Spending

瓦格纳认为随着一国经济的增长,政府财政支出占国民收入的比重将会有一个提高的趋势。但这一定律在中国是否成立还有待进一步的思考。应用面板数据协整分析和面板数据格兰杰因果性检验方法,利用1980年至2010年31年的省级面板数据,研究中国地方财政支出与经济增长的关系。计量分析发现,省级财政支出与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,同时两者之间存在格兰杰因果关系,这在一定程度上肯定了瓦格纳定律在中国是成立的。

Wagner believed that the proportion of government financial spending would have a increase trend as the growth of the eountry＇s economy. But the applicability of this law in China remains to be further tested. The co-inte-gration analysis and granger causality test of provincial panel data of 31 years during 1980-2010 are employed to study the relations of local financial expenditure and economic growth in China. Econometric analysis finds that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between provincial financial expenditure and economic growth. At the same time there is granger causality relationship between them. That partly affirms the Wagner＇s law is applicable in China.