基于VAR模型的河南省旅游业与经济发展关系实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Relationship between Tourism and Economic Development in Henan Province Based on VAR Model

近年来,随着经济发展和产业结构升级,河南旅游业进入了一个全新的发展阶段,但是否可定为支柱产业,需要客观评价旅游产业对社会经济发展的贡献率。文章通过建立计量模型,从定量和定性两个方面分析了河南省旅游业的经济效应,利用脉冲响应函数,探求两者之间的交互响应作用的方向及大小,最后针对实证分析,提出了相关建议,为实施"旅游强省"战略提供相关的理论支持。

In recent years, with the economic development and upgrading of industrial structure in Henan Province, the local tourism moves into a new stage of development. However, whether it can be defined as the mainstay industry, it should be valued on the contribution to the economic development in the whole society from an objective point of view. Through building the econometric models, this thesis makes an analysis of the economic effects of tourism in Henan Prov- ince from both quantitative and qualitative angle. It explores the direction of interactive response action between the tour- ism and economic development through the impulse response function. Finally, it puts forward some related suggestions based on the empirical analysis, which provides a theoretical support on the implementation of the ＂Tourism Province＂ strategy.