货币政策在当前宏观调控中的一种思路

One Kind of Thought about Monetary Policy in Current Macro-control

利用中国1990-2007年的相关数据对货币政策的实证研究发现:货币政策在短期内能够带来实际GDP和名义GDP的双双增长。但在长时期内,货币政策只增加名义GDP的增长率,而与实际GDP增长率之间不具有稳定的关系;而且,从长期来看,是流动性而不是现金的投放对经济的发展更为有利。因此,央行可以在当前既要维持一定的经济增长又要警惕通货膨胀的两难选择中找到困局的可能解——增强经济的流动性,而不是向经济中注入大量的现金。

The paper has conducted the empirical study using the Chinese 1990-2007 ＇s relevant data to monetary policy. The conclusion indicates that the monetary policy can bring both real and nominal GDP growth in a short time. But in the long run, although the monetary policy could increase nominal GDP growth rate, actually does not have the stable relationship with real GDP growth rate; Moreover,it is the fluidity,not the cash delivery more good for the long-term development of economy. Therefore, Central Bank of China may, in the dilemma situation that both must maintain certain economic growth as well as to be vigilant the inflation to find the possible solution - - enhancement economy fluidity, not non-massive pouring the cash into the economy.