中日总产出波动与消费结构演变交互关系比较分析

A Comparative Analysis of the Correlation between Total Output Fluctuation and Consumption Structure Evolvement of Sino-Japan

本文利用中国1985—2011年和日本1970—2011年的实际经济数据，采用HP滤波方法获取周期数据，实证分析了中日总产出波动与消费结构演变关系。研究发现：第一，相关性检验显示，中日消费价格波动呈现顺周期，中日两国耐用消费品易变性均大于非耐用消费品，但中国消费价格波动较日本强烈；第二，中日消费支出波动均比总产出波动强烈，中日各消费项目的易变性，分界点（中国1995年，日本1985年）前大于分界点后；第三，中国经济体制改革对消费支出易变性贡献较高，而日本则主要源于外部能源价格冲击、内部收入倍增计划以及日本作为发达国家的居民消费意识；第四，格兰杰短期因果关系检验显示，中日消费结构演变与经济发展之间均存在相互作用机制，在外部需求因素不确定的情况下，中日两国均有必要提振消费需求，保证经济的持续稳定发展。

This paper employs China＇s and Japan＇s economic data handled by HP- Filter method during the period of 1985 -2011 and 1970 -2011 respectively, to make an empirical study on the correlation between e- conomic fluctuation and consumption structure evolvement of Sino - Japan. The results Show that （ 1 ） correla- tion test indicates, the fluctuation in consumption price index of China and Japan indicate along cyclical, but China＇s has larger fluctuation than later; （2）Sino -Japan＇s fluctuation in consumption expenditure are larger than output, in addition, the volatility of consumption expenditure is bigger in the first stage than second stage （ before 1995 in China, before 1985 in Japan） ; （3） Sino - Japan＇s higher volatility of consumption expenditure result from ＂economic reform＂ and ＂external energy price shock, income doubling plan and special consump- tion awareness for advanced country＂ respectively; （4） Granger Causality test demonstrates, it exists interact between Sino -Japan~ fluctuation in consumption structure and economic development, based on uncertain ex- ternal demand, it is necessary to implement effective measures to robust Sino -Japan＇s consumer demand to keep stable economic growth.