中国上市公司高级管理者变更与经营业绩关系的实证研究

The Relationship between Top Management Turnover and Business Performance: Evidence from the Listed Companies in China

文章选择2006-2010年中国上市公司高管发生正常变更和被迫变更的样本,采用多类别Logit回归模型进行分析。研究发现,无论是正常变更还是被迫变更,都与变更前的经营业绩存在显著负相关。说明中国的公司治理机制发挥着约束作用,低劣的经营业绩会导致上市公司高管发生变更。具体而言,会计业绩在高管变更决策中发挥着主导作用,而股票市场投资回报率和高管变更之间不存在显著相关性。而边际效应分析进一步发现,经营业绩改善影响高管变更率变化值很小,说明中国上市公司治理机制效率较低。

This paper investigates the normal turnover and forced turnover of chairmen from 2006 to 2010.The results of the multi-logit regression exhibit that both normal turnover and forced turnover are negatively associated with accounting performance,while the relationship between turnover and stock performance is not significant.So the accounting earnings play a more important role than stock return in the top management turnover decision.Furthermore,the margin effect of the logit model shows the performance improving has a little effect on the turnover ratio.It implies that only the top management of bad performed firms will be punished in China.