城市媒介生物种群的生态因子分析与动态模拟

Ecological Factor Analysis and Dynamic Model of Vector Population in Urban

目的 :掌握城市媒介生物种群密度的影响因子与种群的动态变化规律 ,以指导防制工作。方法 :应用灰色关联分析方法 ,对城市媒介生物种群密度与月最高温度、月最低温度、月温度变化和雨天数之间的关系进行了研究 ,并利用傅立叶级数模拟了媒介生物种群的时间序列模型。结果 :雨天数和月温度变化是影响蜚蠊种群消长的最重要的因子 ,其次是最高温度和最低温度。影响蚊虫种群密度的最重要的因子是最低温度 ,然后依次是最高温度、月温度变化和雨天数。模拟的上海地区 1996～ 1997年的蜚蠊和 1996～ 1998年鼠类种群动态的时间序列模型结果较好。结论 :可以充分利用生态因子对媒介生物的影响作用 ,并提高模型的预测预报能力 ,更加有效地进行媒介生物的综合防制。

When the population dynamic of urban vector and its influencing factors has been well known, it will act a great instructing effect on the management of urban vector. This research has selected the standard variance as the index of month temperature change. Based on the Grey Relative analysis, the research has been made on the relationship between the population density of urban vector and the month highest temperature, the month lowest temperature, the month temperature change and the month precipitation days. The result shows that precipitation days and month temperature change are two the most important factors influencing cockroach population, second the highest temperature and lowest temperature. The most important factor influencing mosquito population is the lowest temperature, and then the highest temperature, month temperature change and precipitation days. Based on the Fourier Series, the research simulates the dynamic change of cockroach from 1996 to 1997 and rodent population from 1996 to 1998, and the simulated result is coincident with the practical investigation.