应用灰色数列模型预测布氏杆菌病发病趋势

Prediction of Brucellosis Epidemiological Trends Using Gray Model

目的:预测内蒙古自治区2013-2018年布氏杆菌病发病趋势。方法:利用内蒙古自治区2006-2012年布氏杆菌病疫情资料建立灰色模型GM(1,1)。结果:内蒙古自治区布氏杆菌病发病率(1/10万)的灰色数列模型为:Yt=(33.23+43.66/0.06)e0.06t-43.66/0.06(t=0,1,2,…,7),拟合检验显示本模型拟合精度合格(C=0.46,P=9.11),能较好地预测布氏杆菌病发病率的中长期趋势。结论:2013-2018年内蒙古自治区布氏杆菌病发病率呈上升趋势。

Objective： To predict the trends of brucellosis prevalence in Inner Mongolia autonomous region between 2013 and 2018. Methods： The grey model was established using brucellosis epidemic data in Inner Mongolia autonomous region be- tween 2006 and 2012. Results ： The grey forecasting model for the incidence of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia autonomous region （ 1/100 000） is Yt = （33.23 ＋43. 66/0. 06）e0. 06t -43.66/0. 06 （t = 0,1,2,... ,7） . The model fitting accuracy is qualified by fitting test（ C = 0. 46,P =9.11 ）, and the model could predict the long and medium- term trends of brucellosis incidence. Conclusion： The brucellosis incidence has an upward trend in Inner Mongolia autonomous region between 2013 and 2018. Key words Grey model; Brucellosis