基于Weibull分布的小子样电磁脉冲效应试验与评估

Small sample electromagnetic pulse effect test and evaluation method

为了解决电磁脉冲易损性试验周期长、费用高的问题,需要采用较少试件在小子样条件下对系统的抗电磁脉冲能力做出较为准确的评判,同时明确小子样数目的选取。以火工品电磁脉冲易损性评估为目的,通过采用三参数威布尔估计方法,深入探讨了起爆管电路和控制继电器损伤、干扰失效的威布尔估计及样本数目的选取问题。采用相关系数估计法,得到大样本情况下失效密度函数参数,并用K-S方法对所得标准曲线进行了拟合优度检验。参照威布尔分布模型,检验和评估了小子样建模结果,得出了小子样条件下回归方程拟合精度和小子样试验数目,证明所得结果能够满足实际工程需要。

Electromagnetic pulse（EMP） vulnerability experiments are always time consuming and expensive.To overcome those shortcomings,a method which uses only a few samples was proposed.Although many EMP immunity tests were carried out with only a few samples,the number of the samples was not clearly defined.Based on EMP vulnerability tests and analysis,the EMP effect on explosive initiator and control relay were discussed.With the use of the actual test data and correlation coefficient evaluation method,the parameters of failure-density function that obey Weibull distribution were evaluated.The standard curves were processed with the K-S goodness-of-fit test.Then the established models based on small samples were tested and evaluated by the standard Weibull distribution model.As a result,the fitting precision of regression equation and the reasonable test number which fulfils the actual project requirements were obtained.