基于压力测试方法的房地产投资决策风险分析

Risk Analysis of Investment Decision-making in Real Estate Based on Stress Test Method

采用广泛应用于银行业的压力测试方法,从房地产投资企业的角度,对投资项目所面临的政策环境和经济环境这种相对罕见但影响极大的风险进行分析研究,建立压力测试模型,并通过实例分析得出在外部环境剧烈变动时,房地产业利润率的承压情况,从而为房地产企业的投资决策提供建议。

Presented a stress test method widely used in banking system, analyzed the policy and economic environ- ment risks of real estate companies which are of low probability but huge impact. Historical data was used to set up stress test model for analyzing the capability for real estate companies to withstand external severe stress. The result is a valuable reference for real estate investors when making decisions.