基于适应性预期菲利普斯曲线的中国潜在产出增长率估计研究

China potential output growth rate evaluation based on adaptive forecasting the Phillips curve

本文首先对传统的产出缺口估计方法的优缺点进行了比较,然后提出一种全新的估计中国潜在产出增长率的方法,即适应性预期菲利普斯曲线估计法。接着本文选取1978～2011年的数据,运用适应性预期菲利普斯曲线对我国潜在产出增长率进行了估计,结果发现,1996年前后,我国产出增长率发生了裂变,由1978～1996年期间的年均6.78%上升到1997~2011年期间的8.13%。最后,本文分析了运用该法估计的中国潜在产出增长率在三个方面的政策价值,即监控通货膨胀、制定合理的货币政策、寻找新的经济增长点。

In this paper,firstly,we put forward a brand-new method to estimate China＇s potential output rate that is called adaptive expectation Phillips curve estimation method by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the traditional approaches.Then we estimated China＇s potential output rate based on adaptive expectations Phillips Curve estimation method by selecting the data from the year 1978 to 2011.The results revealed that the growth rate of output in China changed from 6.78% during the year 1978-1996 up to 8.13% during the year 1997-2011.Finally,we analyzed the application of the brand-new potential output estimation method in the three aspects,namely,monitoring inflation,making reasonable monetary policy,finding new economic growth points.