基于投入产出模型的中国对外贸易产品结构合理性研究

Study on Rationality of Products Structure in China's International Trade: An Empirical Analysis Based on Input-Output

借鉴外贸商品结构合理度指数的思想,利用修正的影响力系数和感应度系数,构建出新的外贸产品结构合理度指数模型,并基于2002年、2005年和2007年的非竞争型投入产出数据,运用Matlab计量软件对中国42个产业部门进出口产品结构的合理性进行实证分析。研究结果发现:(1)总体上看,中国外贸产品结构在往更为合理的方向发展,且进口产品结构往更为合理方向演进的速度快于出口产品结构;(2)影响力系数与出口产品结构比重的排序并不完全匹配,表明出口产品结构亟需进一步调整优化,且应适量控制影响力系数较小而出口比重较大的产品额度,加强支柱产业出口产品比重;(3)感应度系数与进口产品结构比例的排序并不完全一致,说明进口产品结构亟待进一步调整和优化,且应适度缩小感应度系数小而进口比例较大的产品规模,增加瓶颈产业进口产品比例。

In this research, based on the ideas of reasonable index of foreign trade commodity structure, using modified influence coefficient and induction coefficient and non - competitive input - output data from 2002 to 2007, we constructed new reasonable index of international trade products structure in China. Rationality of 42 foreign trade products structure are estimated by matlab. The empirical study shows that： （1） Overall, the product structure of China＇s foreign trade grows to a more reasonable direction, and imported product structure＇ s speed of evolution to a more reasonable direction faster than exported product structure ; （2） Sequence of influence coefficient and proportion of exported product structure is not fully match. This means exported product structure should be further adjusted and optimized. We should suitably control exported product scale which is smaller influence coefficient and larger proportion of exported product, and strengthen exported product proportion of pillar industry; （3） Sequence of induction coefficient and proportion of imported product structure is not entirely match. This means imported product structure should also be further adjusted and optimized. We should suitably reduce imported product scale which is smaller induction coefficient and larger proportion of imported product, and strengthen imported product proportion of bottleneck industry.