基于熵值法的城市人才吸引力与房地产泡沫相关性的实证研究

Empirical Study of Correlation Between City Talent Attraction and Real Estate Bubble Based on Entropy

本文旨在研究城市人才吸引力与房地产泡沫之间的关系。首先,分别建立了城市人才吸引能力测评体系和房地产泡沫测度体系,并选取北京市1996—2012年的统计数据,分别得出了北京市城市人才吸引力综合指数和房地产泡沫指数;然后,对两者之间的内在联系进行了理论分析;最后,对于平稳的时间序列数据进行了格兰杰因果关系检验。研究结果表明,城市人才吸引力与房地产泡沫之间存在因果关系。

The relationship between city talent attraction and real estate bubble is studied.First,the city talent attraction evaluation system and the real estate bubble measure system are established based on the data of Beijing from the year of 1996 to 2012,and Beijing city talent attraction index and the real estate bubble index are obtained;second,the intrinsic link between the two factors are theoretically elaborated;third,a Granger causality test is used to analyze the stationary time series data.The results show that there is Granger causality between the city talent attraction and the real estate bubble.