核事故后果的计算机评价模式现状与新动向

Current Status and Tendency on the Consequence Assessment for Nuclear Accidents

近 2 0年来 ,核事故后果评价技术有了很大的发展。本文简要综述了 IRPA-1 0会议“核事故及其辐射”专题的内容。因为切尔诺贝利核事故对环境和人的影响深远 ,所以首先介绍了事故后较长时期内环境污染和健康效应的调查及数据收集工作。重点介绍了世界上具有代表性的 3个事故应急评价与决策支持系统 :RODOS、WSPEEDI、ARAC的基本功能和新动向 ,强调了先进计算机技术在后果评价中的作用。

Over the last 20 years, much great improvement has been achieved on the methodology of the consequence assessment for nuclear accidents.This paper presents a brief summarization of the contents of “Radiation and Nuclear Accidents” topic in IRPA 10.Because Chernobyl accident has prolonged impact on the environment and mankind,nvestigation work and data collecting activities relating to environment contamination and health effects after the accident are described above all.The principal functions and tendencies of three typical emergency assessment and decision making support system:RODOS,WSPEEDI and ARAC are introduced mainly.The important role of advanced computer technologies in consequence assessment is emphasized.