内蒙古河套地区雷电灾害易损性风险评估与区划研究

Evaluation and Zoning of Lightning Disaster Vulnerability Risk in Hetao Region in Inner Mongolia

利用内蒙古河套地区1974 ～ 2011年9个气象站观测资料和2007～2011年雷电灾害统计数据,分析了河套地区雷暴日和雷电灾害频度特征,然后基于内蒙古2012年统计年鉴数据,选取雷暴日数、生命易损模数和经济损失模数作为雷电灾害易损性风险评估指标,运用层次分析法和加权综合评价法计算出各旗县雷灾易损性分析指标值,并采用5级分区法对各指标进行分级获得各旗县的易损性等级值,完成了对河套地区雷电灾害综合易损性区划.结果表明,巴彦淖尔市7个旗县均属于中易损区以上,其中临河区、五原和杭锦后旗的雷电灾害易损度极高,乌拉特前旗和乌拉特中旗的易损度较高,磴口和乌拉特后旗属于中易损度区.

Abstract Using the observational thunder storm data of 9 stations from 1974 to 2011 and lightning disaster statistics data from 2007 to 2011 in Hetao area of Inner Mongolia, the thunderstorm characteristics of climate change and the characteristics of lightning disaster were studied. Then, based on the data in Inner Mongolia Statistical Yearbook 2012 and selecting lightning strike density （ M）, life vulnerability modulus （L） and eco- nomic loss modulus （D） as lightning disaster vulnerability risk evaluation indexes, based on them, the vulnerability assessment structure of thun- derstorm disasters in each counties was given with analytical hierarchical process（AHP） and Weighted Comprehensive Analysis （WCA）. Then, the vulnerability assessment indices of thunderstorm disasters were classified into five grades. The comprehensive vulnerability assessment indices of these seven counties were also graded as corresponding five degrees. Finally, vulnerability division of the lighting disaster was obtained based on the vulnerability degree values of seven counties in Hetao area of Inner Mongolia. The results showed that Linhe Region, Wuyuan and Hangjin Houqi lighting disaster vulnerability is extremely high, Wulate Qianqi and Wulate Zhongqi is relatively high, Dengkou and Wulate Houqi belong to moderate vulnerability rezion.