数值预报产品在藏北高原可预报性检验

Assessment of the Forecasting Capacity of Numerical Forecast Products on the Northern Tibetan Plateau

利用青藏高原及邻近地区（70.～105.E、20.～40°N）2012年1～12月的资料,采用平均误差和均方根误差对EC模式和T213模式数值预报产品的500 hPa高度场进行检验,初步给出量化误差值,分析了2种模式在藏北高原的可预报性.结果发现,EC模式24、48、72h预报场在藏北高原的预报能力较强,T213模式相对于EC模式预报能力较弱,同时利用10次天气过程进行了误差检验及3d滑动误差订正,取得了较好的误差订正效果.

Abstract Using the methods of the mean error and the root - mean - square error, and data from Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent regions （70° -105°E, 20° -40°N） from January to December, 2012, the 500- hPa height contours provided by ECMWF （European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts） and by the T213 global model from the National Meteorological Center was assessed, and the quantization error to ana- lyses the applicability of these two models to the northern Tibetan Plateau was calculated. The results showed that the ECMWF 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecast fields have a stronger forecasting capacity on the northern Tibetan Plateau while the T213 has comparatively a weaker forecasting capac- ity. At the same time, with ten weather processes, error check and three - day error correction was carried out with good error correction per- formance.