我国房价与地价、竣工房屋造价及销竣比的关系

Relation among Housing Price,Land Price,Completed Housing Cost and the Ratio of Housing Sales Area to Completed Housing Area

基于一个反映房价与地价微观形成机理的多变量计量经济模型，对我国房价与地价的关系进行理论与实证分析。研究发现：我国房价与地价、竣工房屋造价和销竣比存在长期均衡关系；房价、地价具有较强的粘性；地价虽然从长期看是房价的Granger原因，但从方差分解看，房价对地价的影响远远超过地价对房价的影响；相对于地价的影响而言，“房价惯性”及供求失衡是房价上涨的关键因素；房价和地价受到冲击后，响应值一般在6—7个季度后达到最大并高位趋稳。因此，改善房地产调控效果的关键在于：一是抑制“房价惯性”；二是出台调控政策需有充分的提前期，同时调控政策执行期要足够长；三是调控政策力度要能够实现房地产供求两方面的反向平衡。

Based on multivariate econometric model determining the microscopic forming mechanism of housing price and land price, this article makes theoretical and empirical analysis of the relationship between housing price and land price. Study finds that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the housing price, land price, completed housing cost and the ratio of housing sales area and completed housing area, that although land price is Granger cause of housing price from long-term perspective, however, the influence of housing price on land price is much bigger than the influence of land price on housing price from the perspective of variance decomposition, that the key factor for the rise of housing price, relative to the influence of land price, is ＂housing price inertia＂ and the imbalance between supply and demand, and that after housing price and land price are shocked, the response value of housing price and land price to the stochastic impulse will go to the maximum after six to seven quarter and become stabilized soon afterwards. Therefore, the key to improving the effect of the real estate regulation is the suppression of ＂housing price inertia＂, the introduction of policies for regulating housing price should be ahead of the time, meanwhile, the implementation of the policies should take a long time, and reverse balance between supply and demand of real estate should be realized by regulating policies.