美元体制下东亚经济体汇率的联动关系:现状及变化趋势

Exchange Rate Co-movements among East Asian Economies under the "Dollar System": Current Situation and Trends

自2000年以来,东亚地区的货币金融合作虽然取得了显著的成果,但却始终未能突破"清迈倡议"的框架,至今尚未在汇率协调与合作领域有所进展。在此背景下,深入分析东亚经济体汇率联动关系的现状及变化趋势,对推进东亚地区非制度性的汇率协调①及制度性的汇率合作具有一定的现实意义。研究表明,短期来看,在实际盯住美元的汇率政策下,东盟五国兑美元汇率存在着一致性的变动关系;长期来看,东亚经济体间汇率存在着正向的协整关系,而这种汇率的联动性特征实际上是通过盯住美元得以实现的。因此,现阶段维持东亚经济体兑美元汇率的稳定、逐步提升中国作为区域内最终产品市场提供者的地位,是缓解"美元困境"并逐步实现东亚区域货币金融合作的重要途径。

The monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia,which has made significant achievements since 2000,is still under the framework of ' Chiang Mai Initiative' and there is little progress in exchange rate coordination and cooperation.This paper focuses on analyzing the current situation and trends of the exchange rate co-movements among East Asian economies under the 'Dollar System' which is very important in promoting the non-institutional exchange rate coordination and institutional exchange rate cooperation in East Asia.Over the short term,exchange rates of the five ASEAN countries exist some co-movements under the exchange rate system pegging on the U.S.dollar.Over the long term,there is a positive co-integration relationship among the foreign exchange rates of East Asian economies,being realized by the exchange rate policy of pegging on the U.S.dollar.Therefore,in current stage,maintaining a relatively stable relationship with U.S.dollar and gradually making China a regional provider for final product market is an important way to ease the 'Dollar Dilemma' and to promote monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia.