北京市科技进步与经济增长关系的定量分析

Quantitative analysis of relationship between Beijing scientific and technological progress and economic growth

科学技术是第一生产力,为了解科技进步对北京市经济发展的作用和影响,测算了北京市科技进步对经济增长的贡献率。首先运用广义的C-D生产函数模型,以1980-2011年北京市的地区生产总值作为产出,以固定资产投资额和年末从业人数作为资本投入和劳动投入,并引入科技进步的时间序列建立计量模型,估计出资本和劳动弹性系数,然后利用索洛余值法对科技进步的贡献率进行测算。结果表明,资本和劳动的弹性系数分别为0.266 6和0.733 4,科技进步的贡献率平均达59.33%,对北京市经济增长起主要推动作用。

Science and technology are the primary productive forces. In order to know the role of scientific and technologcial progress and its influence on the economic development of Beijing, the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to economic growth in Beijing is estimated. First, by using generalized C-D production function model, Beijing＇s GDP from 1980 to 2011 is treated as the output, fixed assets investment as capital input, the number of employment as labor input. Then the time series of scientific and technological progress are introduced to the model to estimate the capital and labor elasticity coefficient. Last, the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress is measured based on Solow residual method. Results show that the elasticity coefficient of capital and labor are 0. 266 6 and 0. 733 4 respectively. The scientific and technological progress contribution rate is 59.33% on average, playing a main role in economic growth of Beijing.