基于季节ARIMA模型的紧水滩水库近坝区水质分析预测

Analysis and Forecast on Water Quality near Dam-site of Jinshuitan Reservoir Based on Seasonal ARIMA Model

针对紧水滩水库近坝区水质变化特点,选取反映水体有机污染程度的高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)和溶解氧(DO)两个污染因子于2005～2009年的检测数据作为变量,建立了季节ARIMA模型。数值计算结果表明,紧水滩水库近坝区水质以国家标准分类处于ⅠⅡ类水之间,有机污染程度较低;区内水质有机污染程度随季节呈规律性变化,水质保持良好。所建模型可用于短期水质预测,且预测效果较好。

Aiming at the seasonal variation characteristics of water quality near dam-site of Jinshuitan reservoir,two pollution factors of permanganate index（CODMn） and dissolved oxygen（DO） are selected as variables from the monitoring data during 2005 to 2009,which can reflect the organic pollution degree,so the seasonal ARIMA model was set up.Numerical results show that the water quality near damsite of Jinshuitan reservoir is in Ⅰ Ⅱ level according to national station,the organic pollution degree is lower;the organic pollution degree changes with season regularly,and water quality keeps well.The seasonal ARIMA model can forecast water quality in short-term,and the prediction effect is well.