基于负荷预测的电力市场寡头竞争分析

Analysis of Oligopoly on Electric Power Market Based on Load Forecasting

将负荷预测的思想引入到电力市场的竞争分析中,研究了完全信息下的cournot模型中负荷预测对电力市场竞争的影响.首先建立了竞争模型结构,然后获得没有预测情况下的市场均衡电价,应用博弈论获得负荷预测增量对cournot模型下市场力的影响.最后通过数据仿真获得负荷预测增量与市场均衡电价和发电商收益之间的关系.分析表明:负荷预测精度影响发电商收益、市场均衡电价和市场力.预测误差率在33%以内,预测是有用的.所以提高收益的关键是提高负荷预测精度.

Aiming at finding the effect of load changing on electricity market, the cournot model with complete information based on load forecasting was studied. Firstly, a perfect competition market struc- ture with complete information was built, and a market equilibrium price was obtained based on cournot model with no load forecasting. Then, using game theory, the impact of load forecasting on intrinsic mar- ket power was evaluated based on cournot model. Finally, the relationship between market equilibrium price, generators profits and the load forecasting result was obtained by numerical simulation. The accu- racy of load forecasting would directly affect profits of generators, market equilibrium prices and market power. And load forecasting was useful if the forecasting error rate was under 33%. Therefore, the key was to improve the accuracy of load forecasting.