日本遗失的十年:集中度扮演了怎样的角色?——日本城镇化的教训及其对我国的启示

Japan's Lost Decade: What Role Production and Population Concentration Plays?

中日城市化进程存在较大的相似,对日本城市化进程中经验与教训的总结对于我国城市化的推进具有重要的意义。文章首先构建经济计量模型考察了集中度对于日本经济增长的影响,结果表明过度集中不利于经济增长。由于单方程模型无法回答集中度在日本经济衰退中扮演的角色,文章进一步校准了一个多生产部门的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型。模型比较的结果表明集中度可能并非日本经济衰退的直接成因,但加深了其衰退的程度。因此,吸取日本的教训,适度控制大城市规模和发展中小城市将有利于我国经济的持续增长。

The Urbanization process in China and Japan is similar, and the experience and lessons of Japan has important effect on China. This paper constructs an empirical equation to investigate the relation between production and population concentration on Japan＇s growth, and the results show that concentration has significant positive effect on growth, but the square of concentration has significant negative effect on growth. It means that over-concentration may be harmful for Japan＇s growth. Then we calibrate a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, and the result argues that concentration may not cause the lost decade in Japan directly, but it deepens the recession.