草鱼疫苗接种成本-效益分析

Cost-benefit analysis of vaccination in grass carp

为分析草鱼疫苗接种的经济效益,依据选择成本原则,构建了草鱼疫苗接种成本-效益分析数学模型。应用该模型分析了华北某地草鱼免疫后的成本效益,结果显示,当地草鱼疫苗接种效益成本比为7∶1,使用疫苗后每公顷养殖水面增加净收入14500元,表明草鱼接种疫苗后可获得较大的经济收益。疫苗净效益随着疫病压力(未免疫鱼死亡率)增大、疫苗品质(免疫保护率)变好而升高,盈亏平衡分析表明,在其他条件不变的情况下,未免疫鱼死亡率1.8%,或者疫苗免疫保护率15.3%是草鱼疫苗接种的盈亏平衡点。敏感性分析表明,随着疫病压力的升高,疫苗免疫保护率对净效益的影响高于免疫成本。该模型可用于草鱼疫苗接种成本效益分析,为政府、企业、养殖户等选择疫苗提供科学依据。

In order to study the economics of vaccination in grass carp,a mathematical model was constructed to analyse the costs and benefits of vaccination based on the principle of alternative cost.A cost-benefit study of vaccination in grass carp in north China was made by using this model.The result showed that the benefit-cost ratio of immunized ponds was 7 ∶1,and the benefits added 14 500 Yuan/hm2 due to vaccination.Therefore,the benefits of vaccination in grass carp was good.The net benefits of vaccination increased with the disease challenge pressure and the relative percent survival（vaccine efficacy） increasing.Break-even point（BEP） analysis showed that,if the other conditions were unchanged,the BEP was on the point that the relative percent survival was 15.3% or the mortality of unvaccinated fish was 1.8%.The sensitivity analysis showed that vaccine efficacy had a more significance influence on the net benefits of vaccine than on the costs of vaccination,with the increasing of disease challenge pressure.This mathematical model can be used for costbenefit analysis of vaccination in grass carp,which can help the government,enterprises and farmers make the best decision of vaccination.