热带气旋集合预报研究进展

ADVANCES IN TROPICAL CYCLONE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION

集合预报是减小各种不确定性影响数值预报结果的有效方法,将该方法应用于热带气旋(TC)数值预报的研究开始于1990年代中期,已经取得了很多令人鼓舞的成果。对TC集合预报的研究进展做简要概述,主要包括:(1)TC集合预报技术包括基于单一模式的TC集合预报技术与TC多模式超级集合预报技术,前者包含初值扰动技术和模式扰动技术,后者在大部分情况下预报效果较好。(2)基于全球中期集合预报系统的TC集合预报,是近年来TC集合预报发展的一个新趋势。(3)将集合预报应用于TC生成与发展的研究是近年来TC集合预报应用的拓展。未来TC集合预报的发展将与数值预报其他技术的发展更紧密地结合,集合预报技术在TC研究中将发挥越来越重要的作用。

Ensemble forecasting is a useful method of reducing numerical weather forecast （NWP） errors caused by uncertainties. The ensemble technique began to be applied to tropical cyclone （TC） forecasting in the mid-1990s. Since then many achievements of research have been obtained. This paper gives a brief review of these achievements. The TC ensemble technique is based on a sole NWP model and the TC multi-model super-ensemble, with the former including the initial perturbation technique and the model perturbation technique, and the latter, in most cases, having better forecast results. The TC ensemble based on the global ensemble prediction system is a new developing trend in recent years; it applies ensemble technique to the study on TC genesis and evolution. In the future, the development of TC ensemble will combine more closely with the development of other NWP techniques. The ensemble technique will play a more important role in the TC research.