财政政策、货币政策运用中的财政风险问题实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Fiscal Risk from the Use of Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy

通过理论分析来识别财政和货币政策可能产生的财政风险,并运用动态计量模型检验了财政和货币政策对财政风险的动态影响效应和程度。结果表明:在短期内,财政政策会导致财政风险增加,货币政策将会使财政风险部分降低;从影响的强度上来说,财政政策比货币政策更能引起财政风险的变动,但二者都不是财政风险变动的主要原因。

This paper identifies fiscal policy and monetary policy fiscal risks through the theoretical analysis, and test the dynamic effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy to fiscal risks by using dynamic econometric model. The result shows that： in the short term, fiscal policy would lead to increased fiscal risks, and monetary policy would partly lessen fiscal risks; in terms of the strength of the influence, fiscal policy can more cause fiscal risks than monetary policy, however they are not the main reason of fiscal risks.