家庭生命周期、人口学特征与劳动节约型技术需求--基于582户农民的调查

Family Life Cycle,Demographic Characteristics and Labor-saving Technique Needs——Based on the Data of 582 Farmers

根据中国农村的实际情况,对西方经典家庭生命周期理论模型进行了修正,在此基础上运用Binary Logistic模型揭示了家庭生命周期、人口学特征对农户劳动节约型技术需求的影响机制。结果表明:家庭生命周期对农户劳动节约型技术需求具有重要影响,扩大直系家庭、扩大核心家庭和标准核心家庭劳动节约型技术需求的可能性分别为萎缩家庭的3.185、2.074和1.898倍;劳动力数量、纯消费者数量、户主受教育程度、政治资本是影响农户劳动节约型技术需求的关键因素:劳动力数量的部分效应需通过家庭生命周期来发生,余下变量的影响系数因家庭生命周期的中介作用而提高;处于不同生命周期阶段的家庭,其劳动节约型技术需求影响因素具有异质性。

This paper, accordance with the actual situation in rural China, modifies the western classical family life cycle theory model, it applies Binary Logistic model to reveal the influence mechanism of the family life cycle and demographic characteristics on farmers＇labor- saving technology needs. The result shows that： the family life cycle had a significant impact on farmers＇labor- saving technology needs. And to the demand for labor- saving technology, the possibility of extended lineal family, extended nuclear family and standard nuclear family were 3. 185, 2. 074 and 1. 898 times that of the shrinking family. The key factors that affected farmers＂ labor - saving technology needs included the amount of labor, the number of pure consumers, education and political capital. In details, part of the effect of the amount of labor occur only through the family life cycle. And due to the mediating role of the family life cycle, the influence coefficients of other three factors improved. At different stages of the family life cycle, there existed significant heterogeneity in the factors influencing farmers＇labor- saving technology needs.