面向订单及时率改进的预测性生产模式研究

Research on Forecasting Production Mode Oriented to Improve On-Time Order Fill Rate

手机零部件供应链中的各种不确定因素使得中间商经常交货延迟,以订单及时率为表征的客户服务水平较低,所以,如何提高订单及时率改善客户满意度进而增加客户的未来订单量是本文要解决的核心问题。在对手机零部件供应链的不确定性进行分析的基础上,提出了与当前面向订单采购模式有本质差异的面向订单及时率改进的预测性生产模式,给出了该模式下的成本度量模型和服务水平度量函数,并利用某手机零部件中间商的实际销售数据对该模式进行了验证。计算结果表明该预测性生产模式可以使订单交货准时率提升约70%,而此时销售总成本仅提高了3%左右,但同时也对手机零部件中间商的需求管理能力提出了更高的要求。

How to improve the Order On-time Rate to increase the Customer Satisfaction Index and future order amount is the main purpose of this paper, because the various uncertain factors often make the dealer＇s delivery late in the supply chain of cell phone parts, which results in low customer service level. Based on the analysis of the uncertainty of the cell phone parts supply chain, we propose a forecasting production model oriented to Order on-time rate and its cost model as well as customer service level function, which is totally different from make-to-order （MTO）mode. Then,an application of this mode is given using the actual sales data from one cell phone dealer to test this mode＇ s validity. The results indicates that this forecasting mode of production will increase the Order On-time Rate by 70% with only 3% increase of the overall cost without the consideration of future customer demand amount, but also has a higher requirement of cell phone dealer＇s ability on requirement management.