基于意向偏好调查的需求组合模型参数标定方法

Parameter Calibration of Combined Travel Demand Model Based on Improved Stated Preference Survey

介绍了交通需求组合模型(CTDM),建立了目的地-方式选择组合模型,采用逐层估计的极大似然估计法对其进行参数标定.按照意向偏好SP(stated preference)和行为偏好RP(revealed preference)数据结合使用的要求对SP调查方法加以改进,开发了"基于互联网的个体行为调查设计及数据采集平台"进行数据采集.利用调查数据进行需求组合模型参数标定.以上海市嘉定校区学生观影行为为例,对所提出的方法进行验证.结果表明,通过改进的SP数据标定的参数具有较高的精确度.

The combined travel demand model （CTDM） was introduced and a combined destination-mode choice model was established. The model parameters were estimated by employing the stepwise maximum likelihood estimation method. According to the joint use requirement of stated preference （SP） data and the revealed preference （RP） data, the SP-off-RP survey method was improved. A web-based survey software, web-based survey design and data collection platform of individual behavior, was developed to collect data, which was used to calibrate the parameters of the combined destination-mode choice model. The parameters of model were calibrated with SP/RP data by taking film-watching behavior of students in Jiading campus of Tongji University as example. The results show that parameters calibrated by SP/ RP data have better accuracy.