基于证据推理的风电产业评价

Evaluation of Wind Power Industry Based on Evidential Reasoning Method

根据风力发电产业特点,建立了风电产业评价体系.该模型属于复杂的不确定性定量和定性决策问题,并且评估过程中含有不完全信息.针对此问题,建立了基于证据推理方法的风电产业评价模型.对模型中的定性和定量信息转化成统一的分布式形式,通过集结较低层评价指标得到最上层指标的综合评价值,最后采用效用理论计算出确定数值.算例对所建指标体系进行了验证,计算了3个区域的风电项目方案的得分,以量化的结论直观地反映了其可行性水平.实际评价结果表明,该方法可以为决策者提供有效依据.

An evaluation index system for wind power industry is established according to the characteristics of wind power generation.The model belongs to the complex problem of quantitative and qualitative decision-making with uncertainty,and contains incomplete information in the evaluation process.To solve this problem,an evaluation model based on evidential reasoning method is established.Quantitative and qualitative information in the model is transformed to uniform distribution.With the evidential reasoning method,comprehensive evaluation value of the upper attributes can be obtained through aggregating the lower attributes,then decision is made using utility theory.At last,the index system is verified by a calculation example,in which the scores of wind power projects in three areas are calculated,revealing its level of feasibility quantitatively.The example demonstrates the model can provide an effective basis for decision-makers.