中国与世界经济周期协同性研究

Research on Business Cycle Synchronization between China and the World

随着全球经济一体化进程加快,经济波动传导渠道更加多样化和通畅,各国经济周期协同性进一步提升。中国作为世界第二大经济体,越来越多地受到外部冲击影响,因而研究中国与世界经济周期协同性是非常重要的,这有利于加强国际宏观调控政策的协调。利用滚动相关系数以及非参数法研究表明,中国与世界经济周期的协同性存在较大时变性。近年来,中国与世界发达国家经济周期协同性程度呈现逐步上升态势,而与发展中国家经济周期协同性呈现下降态势。

With the accelerating process of global economic integration, economic volatility transmission channels are more diversified and smooth, and the economic cycle synchronization between all countries has been strengthened. China is the world＇s second largest e- conomic entity, and is impacted increasingly by external shocks, as a result, research on economic cycle synchronization between China and the world is necessary, which helps strengthen the coordination of international economic policy. Using rolling correlation co- efficient and the nonparametric method, we find that economic cycle synchronization between China and the world is time-varying. In recent years, business cycles among China, the world and developed countries increasingly co-move, at the same time China and developing countries＇ business cycle synchronization shows a downward trend.