基于LMDI的东北老工业基地工业碳排放影响因素实证分析

Empirical Study of the Influencing Factors of Industrial Carbon Emissions in the Northeast Old Industrial Base Based on LMDI Model

近年来,随着全球气候变暖和生态环境恶化,碳排放的影响因素备受关注,已经成为各领域研究的热点问题之一。以东北老工业基地1997—2011年工业增加值和能源消耗等数据为基础,利用LMDI因素分解模型,针对东北老工业基地工业碳排放量变化的影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明:人口规模、经济发展和工业化率因素是东北老工业基地工业碳排放量增加的拉动因素,其中经济发展是工业碳排放量增加的最主要原因;能源利用效率和能源消费结构因素是东北老工业基地工业碳排放量增加的抑制因素,其中能源利用效率因素对工业碳排放量增加的抑制作用最显著,东北老工业基地在未来的发展中应走低能耗、低污染、低排放的低碳排放模式。

In recent years, the influencing factors of carbon emissions attract much attention and have become one of the research hotspots in all areas along with the global climate wanning and ecological and environmental deterioration. Based on the data of industrial added value and energy consumption and so on from 1997 to 2011, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions in the northeast old industrial base with LMDI model. The results show that the factors of population size, economic growth and industrialization rate are the pull factors of the increase in industrial carbon emissions, among which economic growth is the main reason for the increase in industrial carbon emissions. In addition, the factors of energy efficiency and energy structure are the inhibited factors, among which energy efficiency has the most obvious inhibitory effect on the increase in industrial carbon emissions. In the future development, the northeast old industrial base should take low-carbon development model, which is characterized by low energy consumption, low pollution and low emission.