基于降水可靠度的路基含水量预估

Estimate of Subgrade Moisture Content Based on Reliability of Precipitation

为了确定不同降水可靠度条件下的路基含水量变化区间,应用统计学原理对试验路所在地区降水量历史数据进行分析,采用区间估计法计算了不同可靠度条件下的降水量区间。并在试验路段埋设湿度传感器,对同一时期路基含水量和降水量进行同步实时观测,建立了降水量与路基含水量之间的函数关系式,得出了不同降水可靠度条件下的路基含水量。结果表明:路基含水量与降水量之间具有较好的相关性,可靠度为95%、90%、85%时,新疆某地区降水量区间分别为[14.8,19.6],[15.2,19.2],[15.4,19.0];相应的路基含水量变化区间分别为:[3.97%,4.31%],[4.01%,4.28%],[4.02%,4.27%]。

The historical data of precipitation in the test road area were analyzed,and the precipitation intervals with different reliabilities were calculated to obtain the subgrade moisture content interval with different reliability.The humidity sensors were buried in the test roads to observe the subgrade moisture content and precipitation during the same period.Then a function between subgrade moisture content and precipitation was established to obtain subgrade moisture content under different rainfall reliability.The results show that： there was good correlation between asubgrade moisture content and precipitation,the precipitation interval were [14.8,19.6],[15.2,19.2] and [15.4,19.0] with the reliability of 95%,90%,85%,the subgrade water content range were [3.97%,4.31%],[4.01%,4.28%]and [4.02%,4.27%].