5种系统疾病住院医疗费用的时间序列分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast of Medical Fees of the Top 5 Economy Diseases in Order of Inpatients Proportions by Time Series

以某三级甲等医院1993年第1季度～1999年第3季度住院前10位系统疾病中相重叠的5种系统疾病的出院病例为样本,采用时间序列分析方法,对系统疾病平均住院医疗费用进行分析与预测。结果表明,5种系统疾病平均住院医疗费用从1993年第1季度到1995年第4季度沿着较快速上升的趋势波动,接着便衰减并逐渐缓慢下降或呈现季节性变化。预测显示1999年第3季度到2000年第4季度病种平均住院医疗费用将继续缓慢下降。实施城镇职工基本医疗保险制度改革,应尽可能准确地预测病种医疗费用的变化,使医疗费用的控制更合理,使医疗保险支付额预算更准确。

selected the 5 economy diseases overlapped in the 10 economy diseases in order of out - hospital patients in a grade A tertiary hospital from the first quarter in 1993 to the third quarter in 1999 as sample, and used time series to study and forecast average medical fees of hospitalized diseases. Results indicated that average medical fees of inpaitents fluctuated along the trend risen rapidly frome the first quarter in 1993 to the forth quarter in 1995, and then fell slowly or showed seasonal change. Forecast showed that average medical fees of diseases will continue to be fallen slowly from the third quarter in 1999 to the forth quarter in 2000. The change of medical fees of diseases must be forecasted as accurate as possible, in order to make the control of payment nom of medical insurance more exact in actualization the reform of medical insurance system.