利率市场化、利率敏感性与货币政策中介目标选择

Interest Rate Liberalization, Interest Rate Sensitiveness and the Choice of the Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy

本文运用1996～2012年的季度数据，实证检验了中国的利率与消费、投资、消费物价水平、国内生产总值之间的关系。研究发现，全国银行间7天同业拆借利率是消费物价水平的格兰杰原因，而其与真实国内经济产出没有格兰杰因果关系；真实投资增长率是真实贷款利率的格兰杰原因；利率的波动能够影响物价水平的波动，而消费的利率弹性较小。因此，从利率中介目标的适用条件——利率市场化、微观经济主体行为对利率的敏感性角度来看，目前尚不具备直接将利率作为货币政策中介目标的条件，而应建立以货币供应量为主，同时监测利率水平的综合货币政策中介目标框架。

Based on the quarterly data during 1996-2012, this paper empirically examines the relationships between the Chinese interest rate and consumption, investment, CPI, GDP. It is found that the 7 days＇ inter-bank borrowing interest rate is the Granger cause of CPI, and it doesn＇ t have the Granger causality with real domestic economic output; the real investment growth is the Granger cause of real lending interest rate; the fluctuations in interest rates can affect the fluctuations in price level, and the interest rate elasticity of consumption is little. Therefore, from the perspective of the applicable conditions of interest rate intermediate target, i.e. the sensitivity of interest rate liberalization and the micro-economic behavior, at present, there are not conditions of interest rates directly as the intermediate target of monetary policy. A comprehensive intermediary target framework of monetary policy should be established, in which money supply is the main base, but meanwhile the level of interest rate is monitored.