工资粘性、货币冲击与价格贸易条件

Wage Stickiness,Monetary Shocks and Price Terms of Trade

影响一国贸易条件的因素很多。除了熟知的供求层面因素外,货币及宏观经济运行特点等因素也可能引发价格贸易条件的长短期效应。运用新开放宏观一般均衡模型发现:(1)"货币的投放速度"可能引发一国价格贸易条件的短期波动,但不会影响长期价格贸易条件。而"货币供给的波动性"能够对一国长期价格贸易条件产生实质性影响,且跨期替代弹性的大小对传导程度和方向的作用不可忽视。(2)当外国的货币供给波动性加剧时,本国的长期贸易条件将得到改善。只是针对不同跨期替代弹性的经济体,其改善的程度有显著不同。(3)工资粘性不仅影响一国价格贸易条件的波动幅度,还影响调整周期的长短。一国的价格运行机制越接近弹性化,在面临货币冲击时,其价格贸易条件的波动幅度越小,完成动态调整所需的时间越短,表现出较强的抗冲击能力。

There are many factors that affect a country＇ s terms of trade（ TOT）. In addition to the familiarly known factors from supply side and demand side, macroeconomic environment and operation features may also trigger the adjustments for price terms of trade in the short and long run. Applying the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we found that： （ 1 ） the speed of money supply may cause short-term fluctuations for TOT, but does not have influence on TOT in the longterm. The volatility of money supply does have substantial impacts on TOT in the long-term and the role of inter-temporal elasticity of substitution is important. （2） when the volatility of foreign money supply increases, the country＇ s long-term TOT will be improved with different degree due to inter-temporal elasticity of substitution. （3） wage stickiness not only affects the fluctuation extent for TOT, but also affects the adjustment cycle length. In the face of monetary shocks, the closer to flexibility for price adjustment mechanism, the smaller the fluctuation extent for TOT and the shorter the complete dynamic adjustment cycle. Elastic price mechanism is conducive to a country＇ s TOT stability.