基于动态因子分析法的四川省旅游业竞争力实证分析

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON TOURISM COMPETITIVENESS BASED ON THE DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSIS IN SICHUAN

运用STATA统计分析工具,将动态因子分析法应用到旅游业竞争力研究中,借助该方法从纵向和横向分析四川省旅游业竞争力情况,通过分析,重在了解四川省旅游业的发展变化及在全国的地位,为其今后制定有效的旅游业发展战略提供参考。结果表明:运用动态因子分析评价四川省旅游业竞争力客观可行,结果较切合实际。从横向来看,四川省旅游业竞争力在全国处于上游水平,说明综合实力较强;从纵向来看,2006～2010年四川省旅游业竞争力发生明显变化,主要是由于2008年汶川地震造成的影响。进一步提出四川省应注重从5个方面提升旅游业竞争力,即社会经济环境、旅游接待能力和市场、旅游资源、技术人才和生态环境。

The Dynamic Factor Analysis （DFA）, integrated the cross-section analysis results through Principal Component Analysis（PCA） and time series analysis results through linear regression model,is a multivariate statistical analysis method,which has the characteristics of objectivity and comprehensiveness and others. So far this method appears in few researches at home and abroad. Using the STATA statistical analysis tools, this paper applied DFA to analyze the tourism competitiveness in Sichuan province by integrating the vertical and horizontal comparison. This paper focused on understanding the development and changes of tourism industry in Sichuan and its position in the country,thus to provide a reference for its future strategy of tourism industry development. The results show that socio-economic environment factor was the most important factor to affect the tourism competitiveness of Siehuan. In addition, factors of tourism reception capacity and market, tourism resources, professional staff and eco-environment had varying degrees of impact on tourism competitiveness. The average composite score of tourism competitiveness in Sichuan was 1. 394,which was top-ranking in the 31 regions from lateral perspective, indicating a strong comprehensive strength. Meanwhile, tourism competitiveness had changed significantly in Sichuan during 2006--2010 from the vertical perspective,and showed a very unstable state from 2008 in particular. Specifically,the development of tourism was in a steady upward trend from 2006 to 2007, but immediately it dropped to the lowest in 2008,then rose quickly in 2009 and had a downward trend in 2010 again,which was however lower than the level in 2006. This is mainly due to the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008. The paper further proposed that Sichuan Province should focus on five aspects mentioned above to enhance tourism competitiveness, namely, the soeio-economic environment, tourism reception capacity and market, tourism resources, professional staff and eco-environment. Overall, DFA is suitable for the evaluation of tourism competitiveness in Sichuan,and the result is in line with the reality. Compared with other methods, this method has certain advantages,that is,the changes in regional tourism competitiveness over time can be reflected, which makes up for the lack of those static evaluation methods and should be widely applied.