陕西关中冬小麦气候适宜度分析

Climate Suitability Analysis of Winter Wheat in Guanzhong Area of Shaanxi

利用气候适宜度模型对陕西关中地区1986年以来的冬小麦不同生育期和全生育期的气候适宜度进行计算。结果表明:在冬小麦生长发育期间,温度适宜度和光照适宜度最高,降水适宜度最小;自1986年以来,随着气候变暖,多年温度、光照、气候适宜度变化呈逐年上升,降水适宜度则呈现逐年降低,从变化倾向来看,光照、温度和气候适宜度以每年0.004 4、0.000 2和0.001 3的速度升高,降水适宜度以每年0.002 1的速度减少。在气候变化背景下,对于关中地区冬小麦生产而言,光热资源较为充足,降水则是影响冬小麦生长发育主要气候因素,且随着气候进一步变暖,降水对冬小麦生产的影响将更加明显。

This paper is to use the climate models suitable for Guanzhong area in Shaanxi Province and calculate the climate suitability of wheat in different reproductive period and throughout the reproductive life since 1986.Results indicates that,during winter wheat growth development,the maximum suitable degree are detected on temperature and light,but the minimum suitable degree on precipitation;since 1986,with the climate warming,the suitable degrees for temperature,light,and climate continuous increase yearly,however,precipitation suitable degrees reduces yearly.In the view of tendencies,the suitable degrees for light,temperature and climate increase at the rate of 0.004 4,and 0.000 2and 0.001 3yearly,precipitation suitable degrees decrease at 0.002 1yearly.In the context of climate change,for the production of winter wheat in Guanzhong,light and heat are more adequate resources,rainfall is the main climatic factors affecting the growth and development of winter wheat,and as further climate warming,precipitation effect on winter wheat production will be more obvious.