北京市人口调控与产业结构优化的互动关系

Relation between population control and industrial structure optimization of Beijing

计算了2001年至2010年北京市的就业弹性系数,并预测了"十二五"期末北京市产业结构升级增加的劳动力规模。结果显示,总就业弹性呈下降趋势,其中第一产业和第二产业释放出大量劳动力,第三产业则吸纳大量劳动人口,极大地带动了北京市人口数量的增加。与就业弹性系数不变的假设情况相比,当以发达国家就业弹性为标杆时,2015年末北京市新增就业人口将少增加100万人。在此基础上,认为北京市人口调控要强化政府的政策导向作用,以产业结构升级为契机,通过优化产业发展布局带动人口结构优化。

Using the related data from 2001 to 2010,this essay calculates the employment elasticity coefficient and predicts the newly increased labor population with upgrading of the industrial structure at the end of the twelfth five-year in Beijing.The results show that the total employment elasticity coefficient is a descending trend.The primary industry and second industry has released a large number of labors,and the tertiary industry has absorbed a lot of labor force which have greatly increased the population in Beijing.Compared with the assumption of the constant employment elasticity coefficient,the newly increased labor population would less increase of 1 million at the end of 2015 with the benchmarking of the employment elasticity coefficient in developed countries.Implications are discussed in the end.The policy guidance should be strengthened,and the development growth through upgrading the industrial structure and optimizing the industrial layout should be realized.