印度对华对冲战略分析

An Analysis of India's Hedging Strategy towards China

印度对华对冲战略既是对中国崛起的客观评估,也反映了其对中国的矛盾情结。印度一直努力追求成为印度洋地区主导国家,但中国的崛起影响到了印度所主导且自认为是其势力范围的南亚地区的利益。由于担心中国日益增强的军事能力(特别是在边境地区)将会把亚洲变成一个单极地区等因素,印度不断采取各种内部和外部措施来制衡中国在亚太地区的影响力。但由于国际形势的变化,以及对冲战略中代价较大、且长期来看可靠性不足的制衡措施,使印度更加侧重对冲战略的接触部分。此外,印度还通过加强与中国的外交和经贸关系,释放不参与美国重返亚太战略等信号,向中国表示其不参加任何遏制中国的联盟的意愿。因此,总体来看,印度对华对冲战略表明,印度对中国的崛起持比较积极和客观的态度。

India's hedging strategy towards China is both an objective appraisal of China's rise and a reflection of its complex sentiments towards China.India has long sought a leadership role in the Indian Ocean Region,however China's rise has influenced India's leadership interests and regionalinfluence in South Asia.Concerned by China's growing military power(especially in the border area) and that China may turn Asia into a unipolar region,India has consistently adopted both internal and external means of balancing China's influence in the Asia Pacific Region.However,in view of the changing international situation,and as the balancing part of the 'hedging strategy' do not appear reliable over the long term,India's preference has shifted towards the engagement part of the 'hedging'.As a result,India has enhanced its diplomatic,commercial and trade relations with China,sent signals that it will not participate in America's pivot towards Asia,and assured China of its intention not to take part in any alliance targeted at containing China.As such,on the whole,India's hedging strategy towards China indicates that it has a rather positive and objective view of China's rise.