基于仿真模拟的长株潭城市群水资源供需系统决策优化

Optimized decision-making of water resources supply and demand system in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration based on the analog simulation

基于系统动力学的原理和方法,在充分考虑社会经济发展及城镇生态用水需求的基础上,建立长株潭城市群水资源供需系统模型,仿真模拟传统发展型、发展经济型、节水型、协调型等四种不同方案条件下,2012-2030年长株潭城市群水资源供需变化趋势,并在此基础上,对水资源供需系统仿真方案与决策优化进行综合分析。研究结果表明:①随着经济发展和人口增长,长株潭城市群水资源供需矛盾将日趋紧张;②在协调型模式下,到2030年长株潭城市群总需水量达到105.1×108m3,水资源供给能力尚有5.4×108m3富余,模拟期内水资源供给基本能够满足社会经济发展的需求,且能够获得最大的综合效益,是长株潭城市群水资源开发利用的相对较优方案;③为了实现预期目标,还需加快水利建设、完善用水管理、优化经济结构、增强节水意识、加大循环利用和环境整治,提高用水效率和水资源保障水平。研究结论可为促进长株潭城镇化发展与水资源高效配置提供依据,同时本文可为进一步深入探讨协调城镇化发展与水资源优化配置决策方案评价提供科学参考。

Using the theory and method of system analysis, a water resources supply and demand system dynamic model was built to simulate the changing trends of the balance of water resources supply and demand in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration from 2012 to 2030 under four scenarios （traditional development model, economic development model, water saving model and concerted development model）. The simulation result suggested that： （1） the problem of water resources supply and demand is becoming increasingly conspicuous with growing population and rapidly developing economy; （2） by 2030, the water resources demand will be reaching a total of 105.1×10^8 m^3, and the supply of water resources is 5.4×10^8 m^3 over the demand, while water resources supply be basically meeting the growing demands of economic and social development, and generated great comprehensive benefits under concerted development model. So the concerted development model will be the best solution to develop and use water resources in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration; （3） in order to realize the expectation aim, we should accelerate the construction of water conservancy projects, strengthen the management on water conservation, optimize economic structure, enhance our awareness of protection of water resources, moreover quicken the recycling of waste water and environmental improvement. In addition, raising the utilization ratio and the support capabilities of water resources are also important to the balance of water resources supply and demand.