雷击火发生的影响因子与预测研究进展

Lightning-caused fire,its affecting factors and prediction: A review

雷击火是最重要的自然火源,由此引发的森林火灾给人类和生态环境都带来了巨大损失,各国都非常重视对其预测研究.本文以影响雷击火形成的主要因素为切入点,着重分析了云地闪特征、可燃物、气象和地形4个因素对雷击火形成、发展的影响及作用机理;在此基础上,对雷击火预测研究中广泛使用的Logistic模型、K-函数等数学方法进行总结和评述,并对美国、加拿大的雷击火预测方法和流程进行介绍,最后对以往研究中的不足之处提出了探讨性的解决方案,并对未来的研究内容和趋势进行了分析,以期对我国的雷击火预测工作提供必要的理论依据和文献参考.

Lightning-caused fire is the most important natural fire source. Its induced forest fire brings enormous losses to human beings and ecological environment. Many countries have paid great attention to the prediction of lightning-caused fire. From the viewpoint of the main factors affecting the formation of lightning-caused fire, this paper emphatically analyzed the effects and action mech- anisms of cloud-to-ground lightning, fuel, meteorology, and terrain on the formation and develop- ment process of lightning-caused fire, and, on the basis of this, summarized and reviewed the logis- tic model, K-function, and other mathematical methods widely used in prediction research of light- ning-caused fire. The prediction methods and processes of lightning-caused fire in America and Canada were also introduced. The insufficiencies and their possible solutions for the present resear- ches as well as the directions of further studies were proposed, aimed to provide necessary theoreti- cal basis and literature reference for the prediction of lightning-caused fire in China.