西北太平洋热带气旋气候变化的若干研究进展

Review of the researches on climatological variations of tropical cyclones over western North Pacific

简要回顾了近年来国内外在西北太平洋热带气旋活动的季节、年际和年代际变化方面的研究,涉及到热带低频振荡、厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(El Nio-Southern oscillation,ENSO)、印度洋海盆增暖、准两年振荡(quasi-biennial oscillation,QBO)等对西北太平洋热带气旋活动气候变化的影响,以及ENSO与热带气旋活动年际相关的年代际变化,展望了该领域的研究前景,并提出当前此研究领域中一些亟需研究的科学问题。

This paper summarizes the achievements of recent researches on seasonal,interannual and in- terdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over western North Pacific. It includes the effects of Madden-Julian Oscillation, ENSO （El Nifio-Southern oscillation）, the Indian Ocean wanning or QBO （quasi-biennial oscillation） on the activity of tropical cyclone as well as the interdecadal variations of the relationship between the frequency of intense TCs and ENSO. Some prospects in this field and some further considerations are also proposed.