中国石油工业经济增长与能源碳排放脱钩弹性研究

Decoulping elasticity analysis of economic growth and energy carbon emission for oil industry in China

运用IPCC的CO2计算方法推算1996—2008年中国石油工业的CO2排放量,在构建基于Tapio脱钩弹性指标模型的基础上,定量分析中国石油工业1996—2008年工业增加值与CO2排放之间脱钩发展的时间演变趋势及脱钩状态变化的原因。实证研究结果表明:1996—2008年间中国石油工业增加值与能源CO2排放大都处于弱脱钩状态,未来一定时期内弱脱钩发展趋势仍将持续;而能源强度的降低是石油工业产值与能源CO2排放呈现弱脱钩的主要原因。

The decoupling elasticity analysis of the economic growth and energy CO2 emissions for oil industry in China during 1990-2008 is carried out based on Tapio decoupling elasticity model.The CO2 emissions are calculated using the recommended method of IPCC.The temporal variation trends in decoupling development are analyzed.The results indicate that most of the decoupling states between the industry economic growth and CO2 emissions for oil industry in China during 1990-2008 are weak decoupling,which will continue in the future.The decrease of energy intensity for oil industry is the main cause of weak decoupling state.