宝鸡市手足口病气象危险指数应用研究

Application of climate risk index in hand-food-mouth disease forecast in Baoji City

目的探索宝鸡市手足口病发病与气象因素之间的关系，为手足15病预报提供科学依据。方法收集2009-2011年宝鸡市手足口病发病资料和气象资料，利用主成分分析和曲线拟合方法分析数据；参考国内应用比较成熟的其他人体健康气象指数的研究方法，设计手足口病气象危险指数。结果平均气温（X1）、降水量（X2）、平均气压（X3）、平均水汽压（X4）4个气象因素与手足口病发病相关，对其进行主成分分析，利用第1主成分（Z1）与周发病人数（Y）进行曲线拟合，获得发病预测方程Y=1．136＋0．914Z1-0．198Z1^2-0．210Z1^3（F=30．644，P〈0．001）。利用预测方程计算宝鸡市区2012年14～30周手足口病周发病预测值，按照手足口病气象危险指数分级标准，模拟预报同期手足口病气象危险指数，共做出17次预报，预报与实际发病指数同级16次，准确率94．12％。结论手足口病气象危险指数对于手足口病综合防控具有一定的实用意义。

Objective To explore the relationship between hand-food-mouth disease （HFMD） and climatic factors, and provide a scientific basis for HFMD forecast. Methods Data of HFMD incidence and meteorological of Baoji City from 2009 to 2011 were collected, principal component analysis and curve fitting were used to analyze data. HFMD weather index was design and the methods of other human health weather index were referred. Results The four meteorological factors, including average temperatures （ X1 ） , the precipitation （ X2 ）, average air pressure （ X3 ） and average vapor pressure （X4 ） , were analyzed by principal component. The first principal component （Z1 ） and weekly incidence of HFMD （Y） were used to get incidence prediction equation [ Y = 1. 136 ＋ 0. 914Z1 - 0. 198Z1^2- 0. 210Zl^3 （ F = 30. 644, P 〈 0. 001 ） ] by curve fitting, and to further get predictive value of weekly HFMD incidence from 14th to 30th week in 2012 in Baoji City. In accordance with HFMD meteorological risk index classification standard, 17 simulated forecast of HFMD weather risk index of the same period were made in total, among which 16 forecasted values were of the same level as the actual HFMD incidence, with accuracy rate of 94. 12%. Conclusion HFMD weather index had practically significant implementation in comprehensive prevention and control of HFMD.