国债发行规模的实证研究

A Positive Research on Issuing Scale of National Debt

本文运用现代经济计量学的方法对我国国债发行规模进行了实证研究。得出的基本结论为 :中央财政收支而非GDP是影响国债发行规模的主要因素。据此基本结论建立的国债发行规模的AR -GARCH模型精度高 ,有很强的预测功能。

The paper conducts a positive research on issuing scale of national debt by modern econometric method.The basic conclusion is as follows:it is fiscal revenue and expenditure of central government but not GDP that are the main factors that affect the issuing scale of national debt.Based on this conclusion,the authors set up an AR-GARCH model of issuing scale of national debt.This model has high accuracy and strong capacity of prediction.