收入分配对广东城镇居民消费需求的影响——基于ARDL-ECM模型的实证研究

The Impact of Income Distribution on Urban Consumption Demand in Guangdong Province——An Empirical Research Based on ARDL-ECM Model

理论分析表明,收入分配会影响居民消费需求。考虑到经济运行的动态特征,有必要对收入分配与居民消费需求之间的长短期关系进行综合考察。通过实证研究发现,无论在长期还是短期,居民收入分配差距的扩大都会引起居民平均消费倾向的缩小,但长短期效应的大小略有差别。因此,缩小居民收入分配差距是扩大居民消费需求的必要举措,但长短期的政策选择在侧重点上应有所不同。

Theoretical analysis shows that income distribution affects consumption demand.Taking into account the dynamic characteristics of economic operation,it is necessary to make a comprehensive study on the short-and Long-term relationship between income distribution and resident consumption demand.EmpiricaJ results suggest that the widening gap of income distribution will definitely lead to the narrowing of residents' average consumption propensity in both the long term and the short term,but there is slight difference between the degree of the short-and long-term effect.Therefore,reducing income inequality is an indispensable measure to expand resident consumption demand,and emphasis on policy options should be different to some extent.