摘要
The total fertility rate of 2010 population census hits a new low record.Careful analysis shows that such a new low fertility rate is mainly resulted from the declined fertility rate in first parity despite the slightly increased fertility rates in second order and over.The total fertility rate at first parity has fallen the most among the rural residents due to remarkably postponed age of marriage or child-bearing,so ever large percentage of unmarried women in their bearing age helps to depress the fertility rate at first parity.After excluding the parity structural effect of women,measured with the progressive fertility rates,the levels of the 2010census have kept almost the same as those in year 2005.Therefore,fertility decline in the latest census cannot be simply attributed to under-reported births.In addition,the latest census turns out that the life fertility rate is around 1.5,almost reaching to the requirement of current fertility policy.
The total fertility rate of 2010 population census hits a new low record. Careful analysis shows that such a new low fertility rate is mainly resulted from the declined fertility rate in first parity despite the slightly increased fertility rates in second order and over. The total fertility rate at first parity has fallen the most among the rural residents due to remarkably postponed age of marriage or child-bearing, so ever large percentage of unmarried women in their bearing age helpsto depress the fertility rate at first parity. After excluding the parity structural effect of women, measured with the progressive fertility rates, the levels of the 2010 census have kept almost the same as those in year 2005. Therefore, fertility decline in the latest census cannot be simply attributed to under-reported births. In addition, the latest census turns out that the life fertility rate is around 1.5, almost reaching to the requirement of current fertility policy.
