中国工业能源回弹效应研究——基于技术进步视角

Research on Rebound Effect of Chinese Industrial Energy Consumption due to Technological Progress

回弹效应的大小影响着国家能源政策的实施效果,而关于我国工业能源回弹效应的研究较为缺乏。在技术进步视角下,依据新古典经济增长理论,按照索罗余数的方法测算了中国工业1978-2008年的技术进步率,并利用此结果估算出中国工业1978-2008年能源消费的回弹效应。实证研究的结果表明,我国工业能源消费确实存在回弹效应但呈下降趋势,说明技术进步仍是降低能源消耗的重要推手,但不能以此作为实现节约能耗的唯一手段,为此,适当的政府管制也是必要的。

The size of the rebound effect influences the implementation effect of nation＇s energy policy, however the researches on these are insufficient. Therefore, from the perspective of technological pro gress,this paper presents a framework incorporating three input factors （i. e. ,capital,labor and ener- gy） of neoclassical product functions based on a brief review of related economic literature,data of en- ergy,economy and capital of industrial sectors in China during the period 1978 2008. Results show that the rebound effect of industrial energy consumption indicates a generally decreasing trend with certain fluctuations since the Reform and Opening Up in China. This proves that technological progress is still an important push force in reducing energy consumption. However this is not the only means to reduce energy consumption,the supervision and management of government is necessary.