前期Nino 3.4区海温变化与宁夏1、2月气温、降水的关系

Relationship between Sea Temperature in Early-Nino 3.4 Region and Air Temperature and Precipitation in Ningxia in January and February

通过对北半球极涡、亚洲极涡面积和强度指数、东亚大槽强度及位置指数的相关性年代际强弱分析、检验,在最强相关阶段对宁夏1、2月气温、降水影响进行相关性分析及显著性检验,通过检验的特征量与气温、降水在相应的阶段稳定性较好,作为预报预测的选取和参考因子具有一定的指示意义。对1961年以来Nino 3.4区12月海温监测状态与次年1、2月气温、降水进行相关性分析,得出前期Nino 3.4区12月海温自2000年以来在宁夏区域暖背景和厄尔尼诺—拉尼娜状态下,与次年1月气温、降水分别成正、负相关,系数较高;在厄尔尼诺状态下,与宁夏次年2月气温、降水的正、负相关性较高;在拉尼娜状态下,与次年2月降水的负相关较明显,上述相关均通过显著性水平检验,可作为短期气候预测中可确定因子的依据;海温在正常状态下与次年1、2月气温、降水均无明显相关。统计了1961—2010年共15次拉尼娜事件结束年对宁夏次年1、2月气温偏高、偏低、降水偏多、偏少影响的概率,并通过X2检验得出,拉尼娜事件与宁夏1、2月气温、降水无显著相关性。

The strong and weak correlations of decadal variation of respective indices of circulation characteristic qualities,such as the polar vortex in Northern Hemisphere,Asia polar vortex area and strength index,and East Asian trough strength and location index,were analyzed and tested to pass through significant level.In strong correlation periods,the correlations between these circulation characteristic qualities and air temperature and precipitation anomalies in Ningxia in January and February revealed that the stability of air temperature and precipitation were high,that means that,as the reference factors in prediction,these circulation characteristic qualities were very important.The correlation analysis and significance test between the early-Nino 3.4 region SST monitoring state in December and the air temperature and precipitation in Ningxia in next January and February from 1961 to 2010 revealed that,under the El Nino/La Nina events,there was a significant positive correlation and a negative correlation between air temperature and precipitation since 2000 under climate warming;under an El Nino event,there was a significant positive and negative correlation between air temperature and precipitation in February;under a La Nina event,there was a significant negative correlation between air temperature and precipitation in February;under a constant SST,there was no significant correlation between air temperature and precipitation in January and February,and all these correlations passed the significant level test.Fifteen La Nina events occurred from 1961 to 2010,their probabilities affecting air temperature and precipitation anomalies in Ningxia in January and February were described,and it was verified with X2 test that there was no significant correlation between La Nina event and air temperature and precipitation in January and February.