北京市能源消费与主要气象因子的突变点分析——基于灰色关联理论

Change point analysis of energy consumption and meteorological factors in Beijing:Based on gray relation theory

采用灰关联分析算法,探寻北京市1980—2010年能源消费与气象因子(平均气温、降水量和日照时数等)时间序列的突变点,并将能源消费与气象因子序列进行趋势分析.结果表明:北京市能源消费序列的突变位置是1993与1997年,气象因子序列的突变位置介于1993—2000年之间;平均气温、日照时数与能源消费序列的突变位置完全相同,也即北京市气象因子与能源消费的关系极其密切.

This paper uses the method of gray relation analysis to find out the change point for time series of mete- orological factors and energy consumption in Beijing from 1980 to 2010. The meteorological factors include average temperature, precipitation and sunshine hour ／ soutet al. It is shown that the change point of Beijing＇s energy con- sumption series occurs in 1993 and 1997, while the change points of the meteorological factors occurs in period from 1993 to 2000. Especially, the change point of average temperature, sunshine hour and energy consumption sequences occur in the same period exactly. Furthermore, meteorological factors have the extremely close relationship with en- ergy consumption in Beijing. In a word, according to the local climate conditions, the government could arrange the strategy of energy resource development accurately.